Projections about China’s power in 2020 and beyond (around the time it’s set to overcome the US as world’s largest economy by GDP) are based on trends established over the last decade or so. The problem with looking at it this way is that there is no way the next decade will see China growing at anywhere close to the rate that it has been, because history has shown very clearly that bringing an impoverished nation to out of poverty is a far easier task than the next step of economic development which is transitioning into a developed economy (like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong).
We are barely entering the stage where China is beginning to hit rough water, because the lynchpin of everything in China is its growing economy. I’ve heard that the government needs to provide at least 7-8% annual economic growth to maintain social stability and that is basically the exact figure of growth that we are looking at currently (coincidence?).
As far as infrastructure, the emerging rail system in China is incredible but there are signs of shoddy infrastructure everywhere in China which all of us see everyday. As Ray mentions, potable drinking water coming out of the tap in a major Chinese city is more or less a distant fantasy, that I doubt many people think is likely within the coming decades or even possible. I really doubt it’s a priority considering all the other issues that China is dealing with at the moment.
I am really fascinated to see how China develops in the coming years. I also want to see what changes Xi Jinping’s leadership brings since the CCP is well aware of the threats to its rule (social unrest brought on by corruption and economic stagnation).